The University of Ne-braska has corn model which predicts yield using locations across the Corn Belt. Dr. Ray Massey, University of Missouri, participates in this collaboration with other faculty from 10 universities. This model was ran August 4th for 39 locations across the U.S Corn Belt. One data location used in the model is St. Joseph, Missouri.

According to the University of Nebraska Crop Watch Article, “Although past weeks have alternative high and low temperatures, on average, air temperature over the past three weeks has remained near the historical average in most of the corn belt, with a few sites showing values below (Kansas) or above (North Dakota and northern Minnesota) the historical average. In the case of rainfall, most locations in the eastern fringe of the Corn Belt exhibited near-normal rainfall, while most sites in Nebraska, Minnesota and North Dakota and some sites in Iowa and Kansas presented below normal rainfall.”

Their data summarized shows the probability for a record yield year for the whole country is low. The probability of the above average yield is small, less than 25% in 66% of the rainfed sites and 77% of the irrigated sites. Data also suggests that there is a high probability of near average yields for most irrigated sites.

Non-irrigated corn yields vary across the corn belt. Central and eastern corn belt are forecasted for near average yields. A few locations in the southern part of the corn belt and Michigan indicate above average yields. Nine locations in western, northern corn belt and central Iowa have a high probability of below average yields.

There are a lot of factors that affect yield and the models do not consider stands, flooding, replant or disease so actual yields may be lower than estimates. These estimates are average on farm yield estimates. An additional forecast will be made in late August. Source: 2021 Crop Yield Forecasts as of August 4. Crop Watch Newsletter, University of Nebraska Extension.

For more information, contact Wayne Flanary, Field Specialist in Agronomy, University of Missouri Extension at 816-279-1691, Buchanan County Extension Center.